Earthquake Prediction

The phenomenon of the earthquake has occurred since the Earth's surface is formed. To understand it, developed seismology, part of earth science. However, until now the earthquake has not also be expected that always threatens the life on it. Research continues to run.

Beginning last week came the rumors will be an earthquake measuring 8.5 on the Richter scale on Saturday, October 24, 2009. Shock mentioned leads to Jakarta.

News that mentioned the Meteorological Agency, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) had been denied the Head BMKG, October 19. This issue has no clear scientific basis for tectonic earthquakes can not be scientifically predicted.

The fact that Jakarta on "safe" course. Although the earthquake occurred in the morning (at 10:09 GMT), the scale is only 5.1 SR and only slightly shook Sukabumi.

Then there was another earthquake in the evening (21:40 GMT) in the Banda Sea. Relatively strong earthquake (7.3 SR) with a center at a distance of 209 kilometers northwest of Saumlaki, Maluku. Because of the earthquake center, convulsions was up to Ambon and Merauke.

So far, the science of human-controlled Terrestrial new limited earthquake records, both the time, location, and intensity. There are currently no earthquake prediction techniques that are categorized as developed and tested scientifically.

However, efforts in that direction longer continue to do. One of the monitoring technique using electromagnetic waves (EM) that emanated from the bowels of the Earth. This research has been pioneered Varotsos, geophysical experts from the University of Athens, Greece, in 1884.

According to him, this technique has good prospects to predict earthquakes because the level of success in predicting the earthquake when it has reached 63 percent.

Seeing this prospect, some developed countries, including Japan and Taiwan, which is often shaken by earthquakes, such as Indonesia, recently intensified to the development of this technique, not only to observe the distribution of EM in the Earth's lithosphere layer, but also in the atmosphere to the ionosphere.

EM waves are used to indicate the occurrence of an earthquake because of plate movement and the acceleration of the magma rock formations due to changes in the Earth's stomach causing electromagnetic wave surge. These anomalies appear before the earthquake happened.

Digging science earthquake monitoring of the two countries, Djedi S Widarto, researchers from the Center for Research Geoteknologi Indonesian Institute of Sciences, recently revealed the results of his research in Liwa, an area on the west coast of Lampung, Bengkulu border which was struck by massive earthquake a few years ago.

Sign of the emergence of tectonic earthquake can be seen two to five days before the incident, indicated the existence of electromagnetic wave anomalies in the Earth's surface. "There is an electromagnetic surge around 5 milivolt before the big earthquake in the area," he explained. This deviation observed even in the ionosphere layers that are 300 to 400 kilometers above the Earth's surface.

"With the development of sensors and instrumentation techniques, monitoring of electromagnetic anomalies in the next 5-10 years can be used as a parameter to predict tectonic earthquake," said Djedi, geophysics doctorate from Kyoto University.

As a result of plate movement, cracks occur which affect the gravity and magnetic minerals in the Earth so that the force destabilizing the electromagnetic field. "This disturbance could get a radius of 400 kilometers above Earth's surface, the layer of the ionosphere," said Djedi, who completed the research at the Institute of Space Science National Central University, Taiwan.

Meanwhile, researchers from Lapan, Sarmoko Saroso, who conducted the study of electromagnetic anomalies at the same institute, obtained the data of EM anomalies when an earthquake happens in Aceh, 26 December 2004. The data is recorded at the same time in the four-station global positioning system (GPS), which is in Medan, Singapore, Myanmar, and India.

Pascagempa Aceh, the experts from both countries agreed to establish cooperation further research, involving research institutions in Indonesia, LIPI and the Institute of Space and Aviation Agency.

Electromagnetic measurements made using GPS network, in addition to the magnetometer instrument, the sensor electrodes geolistrik, and binoculars corona. This system is equipped with tools for data telemetry in real time. Research in Liwa in 2005 that electromagnetic waves to detect spikes as an indication of magnitude 5.2 tectonic earthquake on SR 12 days before the incident.


In addition to electromagnetic wave measurement techniques, the Japanese began researching asperitas (asperity), the level of surface roughness on the subduction zone plate with seismograph system. "By knowing the surface roughness, can be known to the deceleration motion until penunjaman 'locked' and then off or menggelosor," said Eko Yulianto, who won a doctoral geology from the University of Hokkaido, Japan.

Yoshiko Yamanaka and Masayuki Kikuchi of the Earthquake Research Institute University of Tokyo examined the characteristics of surface roughness (asperity) plates, with learning resources in the area kegempaan or antarlempeng subduction zone off the coast of Tohoku District, northeastern Japan.

The study, published in 2003 is based on regional seismic data for more than 70 years ago. They found three categories of distribution patterns in the Tohoku asperitas plates, are distinguished at the level of roughness and the resulting kegempaan.

1 Comment:

  1. JR said...
    masih tentang gempa yah

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